Gold, More than just a safe-haven?

Historical reminder

The oldest gold artifacts date back to the 5th millennium BC in Bulgaria. In China, India, ancient Egypt and around the world, gold has always held value in humanity’s eyes. Initially as a simple store of value, gold then took on the role of a means of exchange between people. In a world where the trade of goods like shells or animals prevailed, the first gold coins were struck in the 6th century BC in present-day Turkey. Gold therefore had a dual role as a store of value and as currency — it met the expected criteria of money: it is a medium of exchange, a unit of account (10 g of gold in France is worth the same as 10 g of gold in China), transportable, durable, divisible and fungible. However, gold has features that limit its use: for large exchanges or long-distance trade it is too heavy, and for small transactions gold is difficult to divide into precise values.

To overcome these constraints, we adopted a fiduciary system based on trust with “paper” money. Initially, a banknote was simply a note, a receipt indicating that the corresponding value in gold was deposited in a safe. In other words, a $20 bill corresponded to $20 of gold that could be withdrawn at any time. Then we moved to 40% backing — so a $50 note corresponded to $20 worth of gold in a vault. Then came the arrangements of the Bretton Woods agreements that pegged the vast majority of world currencies to the US dollar. And today, no currency in the world is pegged to gold; in other words, every banknote is fully controlled by central banks, which decide at will how much to print. This control of the quantity of money in circulation is the cause of inflation or deflation. This decoupling encourages states to go into more debt without major direct consequences for them.

De-dollarisation

More and more monetary authorities are showing their intention to reduce their dependence on the US dollar: according to J.P. Morgan, the dollar’s share in central bank reserves has fallen to a historically low level for twenty years. Meanwhile, figures from the IMF indicate that the dollar’s share among official foreign-exchange reserves declined from about 70% in 2000 to less than 55% today. This dynamic is explained in particular by the desire to diversify reserve assets, limit exposure to US sanctions and strengthen the monetary sovereignty of nations. While the dollar still retains a dominant position, the movement toward other currencies — and also toward gold and non-dollar bilateral settlements as the BRICS do — suggests a gradual structural change in the international monetary architecture.

On performance, the dollar lost 10% of its value against other world currencies in 2025 alone — in other words, if your investment in a dollar-denominated company gained 15% since the start of the year, the real gain would only be 5%. More broadly, the dollar has lost 99% of its purchasing power since 1900 — a phenomenon observed by other states. Indeed, not only are the United States becoming less attractive, but since gold is only priced in dollars, a depreciation of the greenback signals a stronger value for gold.

Over the past 10 years, China has replaced a quarter of its US Treasury bonds with gold. India and even Ireland are doing the same. Countries around the globe no longer trust the dollar and seek to regain their economic sovereignty in a world governed by commercial exchanges.

This reshuffling of cards involves a significant increase in gold reserves in each country. Below is a representation of the largest gold buyers in 2025.

On the decisions front, the Federal Reserve (U.S. central bank) still, and again, decides to increase the total amount of banknotes in circulation. Indeed, the money supply defined as M2 (which includes cash, demand deposits, savings accounts, etc.) has resumed its upward trend: it reached a record level of approximately 22.2 trillion dollars in September 2025—almost a 5 % increase since September 2024. As a reminder, the more money there is in circulation, the less value a single note in your pocket holds. Recently, a 0.25 % cut in its key interest rates, an injection of 125 billion dollars via “reverse repo” contracts (in which one party sells securities to another and agrees to repurchase them at a later date for a higher price) into the U.S. economy over five days, and the end of its Quantitative Tightening programme (when the central bank reduces its assets or allows securities to mature without replacing them, thereby removing liquidity from the economy) by early December are signs that the U.S. economy will continue to heat up and the printing of banknotes will further swell the national debt.

The dollar is not the only currency in decline—although younger, the euro is also silently weakening. Indeed, the European currency lost more than 30 % of its purchasing power between 2000 and 2020. In history, all fiat currencies have fallen to zero, without exception: no fiat currency has survived. Yet we believe that those currently in use will be the exception.

A real decline in “paper” currencies triggers a loss of confidence and fragility in the global monetary system, which will push institutions and individuals alike to protect their capital in an asset that has held value for millennia: gold.

A coming crisis

Earlier, we mentioned a 125 billion-dollar injection into the U.S. economy. This decision is no coincidence—it is a real sign of fear. All U.S. indices are at or near all-time highs, initial public offerings multiply, companies involved (directly or indirectly) with AI sign multi-billion-dollar contracts with one another, leverage effects proliferate across all financial markets, investor euphoria continues and aims to reach new peaks. The 125 billion is more than necessary if one considers the height of global debt. Banks struggle to finance each other and the lack of liquidity in markets is beginning to be felt.

As stated earlier, the AI bubble could well be a catalyst for this global crisis—multi-billion contracts are signed by the same large companies without concrete revenue or at least not commensurate with investments. Admittedly, artificial intelligence is a true revolution and will change everyone’s daily life, but we must not forget the internet bubble when a company’s value increased merely by adding “.com” to its name. For example, one firm intends to spend more than 1.4 trillion dollars to develop its computing capacity while being valued at only 500 billion dollars at present. These investments are only financeable with debt—simply put, debt must eventually be repaid.

An important point to underline is the rise in unemployment caused by AI: major players like Amazon, Microsoft or UPS have announced significant workforce cuts, and advances in artificial intelligence are directly leading to job elimination especially for repetitive tasks. Until now, no job meant no productivity and thus a declining economy; but today it is different—new technologies will ensure productivity. Without employment and therefore without income, global consumption will significantly decrease and focus on primary needs.

A drop in confidence in monetary markets, debt accumulating too rapidly for both individuals and banks, a costly global revolution that will take time to generate stable income, rising unemployment rates, increased geopolitical tensions—so many red flags indicating that once again it's necessary to protect one’s capital with the asset that has stood the test of time: gold.

A new world

In the current global environment, gold becomes more than a safe-haven—it is a symbol of freedom and independence. Financial markets were built on gold and its value, but the more time passes, the more that correlation fades. The world is on the brink of a major economic change, and for context, there have been four major global monetary systems which each lasted between 27 and 45 years; our current system is already over 50 years old. Many signals point to a new monetary world preparing itself—but this time the players will be everywhere across the globe. Gold has enjoyed a recent gain in value, but this has nothing to do with speculation—central banks are preparing, and gold is set to play a crucial role in the world of tomorrow.